About predictors, analysts, futurologists and other predictors.
I read the internet, who only and what does not predict and do not analyze - where will the rate of the dollar go, where will oil be released into one hand, who and why will finance Greta, who will become the president there and the chairman of the government here, who will "count, destroy and replace"... whether we return the Crimea with the Kuriles and go into excess with Belarus, whether China will buy the Baltics and not cheaper the last... who invented the coronavirus and in what amounts it is treated with vodka...

It’s like the anecdote about the blonde and the theory of probability: “What is the maximum probability that you will meet a living dinosaur when you go out on Arbat? “Nowow... 50 to 50... or a meeting or not.”

In the early 1980s we studied in the medinstitutes and we had a cycle of psychiatry. You come to classes in the morning, you are given a patient with schizophrenia, for example, individually or in a group. Here you are with him and communicate for a couple or three hours, look at him, understand how and what he reacts to, how he responds, what structures he builds, what behavior corresponds to this disease.
Subsequently, having met similar behavior in the bus, in a team, at a rally - you immediately understand who is in front of you and how to treat him.
This reflective ability, to see mental abnormalities, life still complicates me and, at the same time, colored with bright colors - well, how at the party not to diagnose the interlocutor, who is "directly like in the picture"?
Or at a meeting with the big boss... “the most interesting types, I’ll tell you, batenka, get.”
Yes, and here on the site, in the comments, full of lovely samples, although students are given for training in diff-diagnostics.

So, we were given a sick at another class. We talk to her, we ask questions, she answers us seriously, she jokes sometimes, school is going, time for lunch... - beauty!
Why she suddenly cried out that “Tomorrow Brejnev will die,” I don’t remember. We’ve stumbled and continue to learn, though.
Tomorrow morning we come to the psychiatric classroom - and our teacher is not. As not the patient, and the guest, and the chief physician.
In the morning it became known that Leonid Ilyich died in Moscow and all who were involved in this information were taken for questioning and slightly detained there, until the circumstances were clarified.
The logic of the organs was simple – “knowing of death in advance, that is, death was planned; planned, that is, a conspiracy.”
They were released in a day or two, into their usual offices and rooms.

Ever since somebody, closing his eyes and confidently lowering his voice, tells "only to me in great secret" that he knows "from very large offices", I look him enthusiastically in the eyes, all in confident attention, and I see clearly before me that crazy aunt, who absolutely accurately predicted the day of Gensek's death.